Independent Development Evaluation (IDEV) at the African Development Bank Group (AfDB or “the Bank”) undertook a Mid-Term Evaluation (MTE) of the Bank’s Country Strategy Paper (CSP) for Tanzania covering the period 2021 - 2025. The MTE's main purpose was to assess the implementation and performance thus far and inform the design and implementation of the remaining period of the strategy and program. The MTE also sought to inform the preparation of the mid-term review of the CSP scheduled for mid–2023.
The CSP was approved in December 2020 with the goal of supporting Tanzania’s vision of becoming a competitive and inclusive economy. The CSP is structured around two priorities for Bank support: (i) sustainable infrastructure for a competitive economy; and (ii) an improved private sector business environment for job creation. As of March 2023, the Bank’s active portfolio in Tanzania consisted of 24 projects (21 sovereign, and three non-sovereign) totaling UA 2 billion (USD 2.7 billion). The active portfolio focused on infrastructure (about 56.0% for transport, 18.0% for power, and 2.6% for water supply and sanitation). The remaining sectors comprise finance (6.8%), agriculture (4.0%), social (1.6%), and governance and other sectors (1.0%).
The evaluation found that the Bank's strategy and programs were highly relevant and aligned to Tanzania's development plans, and the Bank’s Ten-Year Strategy and operational priorities, including the High 5s. The CSP 2021–2025 was found to be well-designed, with clear strategic objectives and performance indicators. However, some shortcomings were noted at the CSP level, where the strategic objectives for Tanzania were found to exceed the resources available for the country program, while at the project level, there was a disconnect between the strategic orientations laid out in the CSP and the program actually implemented.
The evaluation found that most interventions implemented demonstrated positive synergy, even though some interventions displayed limited internal synergy in their design across various sectors. Relatively few Bank operations planned for 2021–2025 had been approved as of March 2023, but thus far, most ongoing operations were found to have a high probability of achieving their outputs and outcomes at completion, with positive progress noted in the transport, energy and water sectors. However, the likelihood of achieving all the CSP's planned outcomes by 2025 was found to be low. Efficiency was not found across all sectors, and larger infrastructure interventions were prone to delays. Implementation timeliness was found to be a recurrent issue in all sectors leading to many projects being extended. The escalating prices for building materials due to the global economic recession harmed cost-efficiency. In addition, significant savings were noted on completed projects in the transport sector. Such large savings might become a concern, and more accurate costing would allow resources to be allocated efficiently among projects from the beginning. The Bank’s strategies and programs were found to consistently address sustainability issues by investing in capacity building, training, policy dialogue, and advocacy. However, financial sustainability was found to be a major weakness as evidenced by the inadequate tariffs in the water and energy sectors, and road maintenance gap in the transport sector.
Some of the critical lessons drawn from this evaluation include: planning infrastructure projects in an integrated and inter-sectoral manner; focusing governance and business-enabling support in areas that are tightly concentrated on quick-win solutions and complement other Bank operations; and flexibility in the Bank’s response to challenges that arise during a crisis.
The evaluation recommended to the Bank to maintain its strategic focus in Tanzania on sustainable infrastructure and private sector development, while adjusting the program for the remainder of the CSP to better align it with the resources available; and to harmonize its’ strategic positioning in the agriculture sector and the actual program for the sector. The Bank was also advised to bolster private sector operations during the second half of the CSP period and address the risks to sustainability.
Task manager: Samson Houetohossou, Principal Evaluation Officer
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| Tanzania Mid-term Evaluation 2021-2025_Summary Report | 2.15 MB |
| Tanzania Mid-term Evaluation 2021-2025_Executive Summary | 472.07 KB |
| Tanzania Mid-term Evaluation 2021-2025_Highlights | 585.05 KB |
| Tanzania Mid-term Evaluation 2021-2025_Concept Note | 391.69 KB |